Without New Data, the Search for Life May Never find an answer …
Astrobiology is full of serious science, but seriousness does not guarantee convergence. This paper argues that the dominant search pipeline for extraterrestrial life may be structurally unable to produce a decisive answer on human timescales. Biosignatures remain ambiguous, SETI nulls remain weak, and the strongest future instrument still does not justify betting the whole question on one lane of evidence.
Alpha in Astrobiology proposes a different approach: widen rigour rather than relax it. Instead of restricting the search to familiar categories, rank evidence by inferential value. Treat the problem as a portfolio. Under those conditions, alternative data stops looking eccentric and starts looking necessary.